Max Brès

Working papers

An asterisk (*) marks talks I gave; the others were given by co-authors.

• The Macroeconomics of Aging Consumers: the Competition Channel with Daniele Angelini Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper No. 471, August 2026 Previously circulated as “Aging Consumers, Competition, and Growth”
  Abstract

  Population aging affects product-market competition through demand composition. A search model of competition, disciplined by evidence on life-cycle differences in substitution behavior and search intensity, predicts non-monotone effects: aging from young to middle age weakens competition, while aging into retirement strengthens it. Consistent with the model, a shift-share IV combining foreign demographic shifts with predetermined sectoral exposure finds that middle-aged demand raises prices and profit shares but lowers output. In a U.S.-calibrated general-equilibrium analysis, this competition channel lowers real GDP by up to 1.2 percent, peaking in the mid-2010s before partly reversing as baby boomers enter retirement.

  Presentations

  Università della Svizzera italiana*, CEBRA Annual Meeting*, Nordic Summer Institute in Labor Economics (Uppsala)*, EEA Congress*, IIES Macro Group*, Banque de France–FFJ Workshop on the Economics of Ageing (online), Workshop on Labour Market Policies and Dynamics (Collegio Carlo Alberto), Aix-Marseille School of Economics

• Future versus Today's Improvements: The Trade-off of Place-Based Policies with Philipp Kircher and David Koll (New version coming soon)
  Abstract

  This paper provides causal evidence on the labor-market effects of reallocating firm subsidies across sectors within local economies. We exploit a change in the geographical coverage of France's Aides à Finalité Régionale (AFR) zoning that altered which commuting zones qualified for a more permissive subsidy regime. This eligibility change induced a reallocation of subsidies away from research-intensive and high-skilled service activities toward manufacturing and low-skilled services, while leaving the overall subsidy envelope received by each area essentially unchanged. We show that this sectoral reallocation leads to persistent increases in local employment and hours over the long run, without adverse effects on aggregate value added. The employment gains are driven by increased firm entry, particularly in manufacturing, rather than by reduced exit. At the worker level, average earnings decline in repeated cross-sections due to lower hours per worker, while workers already present in treated areas experience sustained earnings gains. Overall, our results highlight sectoral targeting rather than subsidy levels as a central mechanism through which place-based policies shape local labor-market outcomes.

  Presentations

  Conference on Technological Change (UCLouvain)*, University of Konstanz*, IMF, Cornell University, Aix-Marseille School of Economics (AMSE), FLX Labor Day Conference

Selected work in progress

• Micro-to-Macro Impulse Responses: Firm Heterogeneity and Monetary Transmission to Prices with Davide Bucci (Draft available upon request)
  Abstract

  Aggregate impulse responses to repeated shocks vary over time when the underlying cross-section of agents shifts. We develop a micro-to-macro procedure that estimates these time-varying responses by first learning heterogeneous micro elasticities with a generalized random forest, then aggregating predicted responses with predetermined economic weights. Applied to the transmission of monetary policy to producer prices using Swedish micro data, the aggregate price response strengthens markedly during the 2022–23 tightening cycle, driven primarily by changes in the financial and real position of incumbent firms. We further document an aggregation bias affecting standard macro local projections on log indices: linked to Jensen's inequality, this bias is typically small but becomes material when the cross-sectional dispersion of responses widens following large shocks, as in 2023.

• When Real Estate Risk Spills Over: The Role of Banks CRE Exposure in Monetary Policy Transmission (Draft available upon request)
  Abstract

  This paper examines how banks transmit monetary policy shocks across sectors by leveraging the heterogeneous exposure of Swedish banks to heightened Commercial Real Estate (CRE) default risk during the 2022–2023 monetary policy tightening. Banks facing greater CRE exposure responded to rate hikes by rationing loan issuance, shortening interest fixation periods, and substituting more expensive credit lines for term loans. These actions increased financing costs for non-CRE firms and raised their probability of bankruptcy. By contrast, CRE borrowers experienced relatively modest changes in lending terms, indicating that their elevated risk was, in effect, transferred to other sectors. Overall, the findings highlight how sector-specific exposures can amplify monetary policy shocks, cautioning policymakers against an exclusive focus on the primary source of risk when evaluating systemic financial stability and the broader transmission of monetary policy.

  Presentations

  ECB Research Workshop of the MPC Taskforce*

• Leading Firms and the Future of Work with Fabrizio Colella, Philipp Kircher and David Koll
  Presentations

  IMF, Conference on Technological Change (UCLouvain), AIEL Annual Meeting (Milan)

Policy publications

• Estimating perceived monetary policy rules for Sweden with Alexander Czarnota and Matilda Kilström Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review, 2026:1
• The Money Market in Swedish Kronor 2022–2023 with Sabina Colakovic and Ingrid Wallin Johansson Sveriges Riksbank Staff Memo, August 2024